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DFG-Risiko

Analysis of future grid loads under consideration of uncertainties for application in risk-based grid design


The integration of renewable energy systems , the simultaneous reduction of conventional power plants, the increase in load due to sector coupling and the liberalization of the energy markets result in significant uncertainties in the future electrical energy system and therefore in the load on the electrical energy networks. The uncertainties currently existing can be classified into two levels. First, they concern the future design or development of generation, consisting of conventional power plants and regenerative sources, and the loads (stage one). Here, the uncertainty relates both to the amount of installed capacity depending on the energy source and to the local allocation influenced by the economic efficiency of existing power plants, raw material price developments, area potentials and sector coupling. Secondly, there are a number of new uncertainties for each generation park design when operations are taken into account (level two). These include, for example, CO2 certificate prices, market designs, weather conditions, uncertainties regarding developments in neighbouring European countries and the design of operational options such as redispatch, regulation concepts and flexibility.

Due to long horizons for planning power lines and cables, investment decisions for grid expansion have to be made under these uncertain future developments. In order to ensure a reliable and secure energy network in the future, it is necessary to model and consider these uncertainties entirely and adequately in the decision-making process. This requires a detailed mathematical-statistical analysis and quantification of the uncertainties including their correlations. Based on this, the effects on the load flow have to be determined with methods of probabilistic load flow calculation (prob. LF). Subsequently, the results serve to be used for grid planning and to make a methodologically substantiated decision under uncertainty.

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Location & approach

The campus of TU Dort­mund University is located close to interstate junction Dort­mund West, where the Sauerlandlinie A 45 (Frankfurt-Dort­mund) crosses the Ruhrschnellweg B 1 / A 40. The best interstate exit to take from A 45 is "Dort­mund-Eichlinghofen" (closer to Campus Süd), and from B 1 / A 40 "Dort­mund-Dorstfeld" (closer to Campus Nord). Signs for the uni­ver­si­ty are located at both exits. Also, there is a new exit before you pass over the B 1-bridge leading into Dort­mund.

To get from Campus Nord to Campus Süd by car, there is the connection via Vogelpothsweg/Baroper Straße. We recommend you leave your car on one of the parking lots at Campus Nord and use the H-Bahn (suspended monorail system), which conveniently connects the two campuses.

TU Dort­mund University has its own train station ("Dort­mund Uni­ver­si­tät"). From there, suburban trains (S-Bahn) leave for Dort­mund main station ("Dort­mund Hauptbahnhof") and Düsseldorf main station via the "Düsseldorf Airport Train Station" (take S-Bahn number 1, which leaves every 20 or 30 minutes). The uni­ver­si­ty is easily reached from Bochum, Essen, Mülheim an der Ruhr and Duisburg.

You can also take the bus or subway train from Dort­mund city to the uni­ver­si­ty: From Dort­mund main station, you can take any train bound for the Station "Stadtgarten", usually lines U41, U45, U 47 and U49. At "Stadtgarten" you switch trains and get on line U42 towards "Hombruch". Look out for the Station "An der Palmweide". From the bus stop just across the road, busses bound for TU Dort­mund University leave every ten minutes (445, 447 and 462). Another option is to take the subway routes U41, U45, U47 and U49 from Dort­mund main station to the stop "Dort­mund Kampstraße". From there, take U43 or U44 to the stop "Dort­mund Wittener Straße". Switch to bus line 447 and get off at "Dort­mund Uni­ver­si­tät S".

The AirportExpress is a fast and convenient means of transport from Dort­mund Airport (DTM) to Dort­mund Central Station, taking you there in little more than 20 minutes. From Dort­mund Central Station, you can continue to the uni­ver­si­ty campus by interurban railway (S-Bahn). A larger range of in­ter­na­tio­nal flight connections is offered at Düsseldorf Airport (DUS), which is about 60 kilometres away and can be directly reached by S-Bahn from the uni­ver­si­ty station.

The H-Bahn is one of the hallmarks of TU Dort­mund University. There are two stations on Campus Nord. One ("Dort­mund Uni­ver­si­tät S") is directly located at the suburban train stop, which connects the uni­ver­si­ty directly with the city of Dort­mund and the rest of the Ruhr Area. Also from this station, there are connections to the "Technologiepark" and (via Campus Süd) Eichlinghofen. The other station is located at the dining hall at Campus Nord and offers a direct connection to Campus Süd every five minutes.

The facilities of TU Dort­mund University are spread over two campuses, the larger Campus North and the smaller Campus South. Additionally, some areas of the uni­ver­si­ty are located in the adjacent "Technologiepark".

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