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DFG-Risiko

Analysis of fu­ture grid loads under consideration of uncertainties for application in risk-based grid de­sign


The integration of renewable energy systems , the simultaneous reduction of conventional power plants, the increase in load due to sector coupling and the liberalization of the energy markets result in significant uncertainties in the fu­ture electrical energy system and therefore in the load on the electrical energy networks. The uncertainties currently existing can be classified into two levels. First, they concern the fu­ture de­sign or development of gen­era­tion, consisting of conventional power plants and regenerative sources, and the loads (stage one). Here, the uncertainty relates both to the amount of installed capacity depending on the energy source and to the local allocation influenced by the economic efficiency of existing power plants, raw material price developments, area potentials and sector coupling. Secondly, there are a number of new uncertainties for each gen­era­tion park de­sign when operations are taken into account (level two). These include, for example, CO2 certificate prices, market designs, weather conditions, uncertainties regarding developments in neighbouring European coun­tries and the de­sign of operational options such as redispatch, regulation concepts and flexibility.

Due to long horizons for planning power lines and cables, investment decisions for grid expansion have to be made under these uncertain fu­ture developments. In order to ensure a reliable and secure energy network in the fu­ture, it is necessary to model and consider these uncertainties entirely and adequately in the decision-making process. This requires a detailed mathematical-statistical analysis and quantification of the uncertainties in­clu­ding their correlations. Based on this, the ef­fects on the load flow have to be determined with methods of probabilistic load flow calculation (prob. LF). Subsequently, the results serve to be used for grid planning and to make a methodologically substantiated decision under uncertainty.

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Location & approach

The campus of TU Dort­mund Uni­ver­sity is located close to interstate junction Dort­mund West, where the Sauerlandlinie A 45 (Frankfurt-Dort­mund) crosses the Ruhrschnellweg B 1 / A 40. The best interstate exit to take from A 45 is "Dort­mund-Eichlinghofen" (closer to Cam­pus Süd), and from B 1 / A 40 "Dort­mund-Dorstfeld" (closer to Cam­pus Nord). Signs for the uni­ver­si­ty are located at both exits. Also, there is a new exit before you pass over the B 1-bridge leading into Dort­mund.

To get from Cam­pus Nord to Cam­pus Süd by car, there is the connection via Vo­gel­pothsweg/Baroper Straße. We recommend you leave your car on one of the parking lots at Cam­pus Nord and use the H-Bahn (suspended monorail system), which conveniently connects the two campuses.

TU Dort­mund Uni­ver­sity has its own train station ("Dort­mund Uni­ver­si­tät"). From there, suburban trains (S-Bahn) leave for Dort­mund main station ("Dort­mund Hauptbahnhof") and Düsseldorf main station via the "Düsseldorf Airport Train Station" (take S-Bahn number 1, which leaves every 20 or 30 minutes). The uni­ver­si­ty is easily reached from Bochum, Essen, Mülheim an der Ruhr and Duis­burg.

You can also take the bus or subway train from Dort­mund city to the uni­ver­si­ty: From Dort­mund main station, you can take any train bound for the Station "Stadtgarten", usually lines U41, U45, U 47 and U49. At "Stadtgarten" you switch trains and get on line U42 towards "Hombruch". Look out for the Station "An der Palmweide". From the bus stop just across the road, busses bound for TU Dort­mund Uni­ver­sity leave every ten minutes (445, 447 and 462). Another option is to take the subway routes U41, U45, U47 and U49 from Dort­mund main station to the stop "Dort­mund Kampstraße". From there, take U43 or U44 to the stop "Dort­mund Wittener Straße". Switch to bus line 447 and get off at "Dort­mund Uni­ver­si­tät S".

The AirportExpress is a fast and convenient means of transport from Dort­mund Airport (DTM) to Dort­mund Central Station, taking you there in little more than 20 minutes. From Dort­mund Central Station, you can continue to the uni­ver­si­ty campus by interurban railway (S-Bahn). A larger range of in­ter­na­tio­nal flight connections is offered at Düsseldorf Airport (DUS), which is about 60 kilometres away and can be directly reached by S-Bahn from the uni­ver­si­ty station.

The H-Bahn is one of the hallmarks of TU Dort­mund Uni­ver­sity. There are two stations on Cam­pus Nord. One ("Dort­mund Uni­ver­si­tät S") is directly located at the suburban train stop, which connects the uni­ver­si­ty directly with the city of Dort­mund and the rest of the Ruhr Area. Also from this station, there are connections to the "Technologiepark" and (via Cam­pus Süd) Eichlinghofen. The other station is located at the dining hall at Cam­pus Nord and offers a direct connection to Cam­pus Süd every five minutes.

The facilities of TU Dort­mund Uni­ver­sity are spread over two campuses, the larger Cam­pus North and the smaller Cam­pus South. Additionally, some areas of the uni­ver­si­ty are located in the adjacent "Technologiepark".

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